2nd Working Group Meeting Oslo

Workshop on physical modeling supporting a “storyline approach”


While narratives or storylines have been used for decades in social sciences and beyond (e.g. RCPs, SSPs, economic risk assessment), the concept of analyzing and communicating high-impact weather extreme events in the climate change context via storylines has recently gained quite some popularity in the climate modeling community.


Storylines are also a useful way to investigate and communicate compound events, which are in the focus of the COST Action (CA17109) DAMOCLES “Understanding and modeling compound climate and weather events”.

Scope:

  • In this workshop, we will review the current approaches to generate event-based storylines using physical modelling, and explore how they can be most effectively integrated into the wider climate information landscape in a way that helps climate communication and policies.
  • The workshop is divided into thematic sessions, consisting of a series of short talks followed by breakout sessions, in which we will discuss a number of questions and formulate recommendations for future application of event-based storylines.

The range of topics covered includes:

  • What are the challenges and advantages of this storyline approach (basically picking a particular event) compared to the full probabilistic approach?
  • How can storylines or narratives of specific events be combined with probabilistic approaches?
  • What kind of models (GCM, RCM, convection-permitting, impact models) are required to support the storyline approach, and are useful to include in a model chain approach?
  • What should be considered when designing the model experiments for localized events (e.g., resolution, ensemble size and design, choice of scenario/forcing/initial conditions)?
  • What are useful approaches to combine physical with statistical modeling and the knowledge from other domains (e.g., social sciences, impact modeling)?

Webpage of the workshop. A report of the workshop is available here.